April 27, 2011

Swap silver for gold

Just to get it on record, I agree with this post by Mish.  Although it could go much higher prior to a correction, Silver is looking shaky from a risk perspective at this level.  It's just come too far too fast.  So, for risk purposes, a portfolio that was 25% silver, 25% gold, 50% commodities (DBC), should readjust.

I recommend dropping silver to 10%, with 40% gold, 50% DBC.  I also recommend maintaining a hedge via a stock index (I still prefer long dated options).  Essentially, nothing has changed, so the basic portfolio concept is intact, but I think it's time to take some risk (and silver profits) off the table.

Oh, and Obama's 'birth certificate' is clearly bogus, not that it makes a damn bit of difference.  As things stand, I prefer him to the GOP, as he'll drive things over the cliff faster.  Given the stupidity of the electorate, we're going over the cliff either way and I'd just as soon get it over with.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 02:56 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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April 06, 2011

Brief update

To call the political blogosphere a wasteland would be an insult to vast, empty tracts of land -- at least the tracts of land might someday prove useful, unlike say, Hot Air.

Wealth preservation portfolio since inception (QE2 start) -- up about 27%.  This, by the way, is roughly the true rate of inflation -- over 50% annualized!  Silver -- up an astounding 59%.  Blended stock market -- up about 11%.  So, barring complete lunacy, any hedged strategy would be up very nicely.  If someone (cough) had hedged somewhat intelligently with puts, they'd be up about 20%.  How's my ass taste, political hacks?

Just read Zero Hedge.  Sure, it's sensationalist.  But for the intelligent reader (in other words -- no one in the political blogosphere), there's more valuable content on that one site in one day than there is on all the political sites combined in a year.

I might update again in another 3 months or so, assuming I can take a brief break from laughing at the fucktards who take the political circus seriously.  Hasta la vista -- baby.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 09:56 PM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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