This week saw some strong early movement to the downside followed by consolidation and a pop into the GM IPO and options expiry.  With the market pegged into the Friday close due to options expiry, and the GM IPO not acting terribly well, it feels like we might see some more downside volatility early next week.  On the other hand, short holiday weeks are usually good for advances on light volume.  So, for the short-term, flip a coin and hope for the best.  Current results for our funds and their components:

Not a whole lot of net movement, obviously.  The most interesting thing here is the increasing divergence between consumable commodities and precious metals.  Oil and foodstuffs were sold heavily most of the week, while gold and silver sold off, then consolidated.  While this kind of divergence can continue for a long time, it seems unlikely that DBC can continue to move lower without other risk assets selling off as well.

On to the Ben Bernanke betting game.  What will be the fate of Bumbling Ben by the end of next year?  Place your bets:

• Strangled by Ron Paul -- 1000 to 1
• Hung for Treason -- 100 to 1
• Commits Suicide -- 75 to 1
• Killed by bankrupt lunatic -- 50 to 1
• Dead by other means / natural causes -- 35 to 1
• Fled the country -- 25 to 1
• Under indictment (or already jailed) -- 10 to 1
• Forced out of the Fed but free -- 3 to 2
• Still selling America down the river -- 3 to 2

As the GOP is starting to make some real noise about the Fed, I've increased the odds that our favorite criminal is forced out and decreased the odds that he's still thieving away.  I've also added a generic category for his demise because, well, hope springs eternal.

Have a good weekend.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 12:42 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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