In order to try to break up the beltway gang that's selling this country down the river, more people seem to be in favor of term limits these days.  Yet I, a huge supporter of 'throw the bums out', think the idea is completely idiotic.  Why?

First, it's lazy -- a direct deriliction of our duty as voters.  If we're willing to throw the bums out, we don't need term limits.

Second, and much more importantly, you get the worst of both worlds.  People who are good public servants get termed out, while those who are willing to whore themselves out have no reason not to.  If a dishonest pol is going to be out, no matter what, after a fixed time, he's going to be completely unrestrained in selling himself.

Lastly, term limits ignore one of the biggest problems in government -- the entrenched bureaucracy.  A good pol that gets termed out has no real chance to cut the huge fat in government.  The bureaucracy can just wait him out, something they're experts at.

Term limits remove incentives for good politicians while doing little to nothing to restrain the bad ones.  They're a terrible idea.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 12:21 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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It turns out that Paladino never actually said the specific remarks that started the whole firestorm over at DPUD.  So, by attempting to frame the debate dishonestly, IVD has just made himself look like a complete and utter tool.

This whole fiasco is a perfect example of why one should frame their points honestly.  Then, when new information comes to light, you can still have a valid argument, rather than a smoking crater where your credibility used to be.

Even though Paladino didn't say those specific words, the facts remain that: (1) He was reading the prepared comments of a third party, and in such a way that they could be misconstrued as his own comments, and (2) He's discussing a very divisive social issue in an election where one should be able to run solely on fiscal issues.  Both of these show extremely bad judgment, at the very least.

If you can't win this year when running against a long-term political insider by focusing on just fiscal issues, you weren't going to win under any circumstances.  Whether or not Paladino is homophobic may be back up in the air, but there's no doubt he's a dipshit and a lousy candidate, which brings us right back to the issue of candidate vetting.

If this debate had been framed honestly from the start, this revelation about what Paladino actually said wouldn't make a bit of difference.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 06:08 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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How to get people to pay attention to airline safety instructions:

(via Hawtness)

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 10:16 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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One last note on the issue of candidate vetting.  In the aforementioned DPUD post, IVD finally gets around to saying this:

I get the nation's mood. Throw the bums out, all that.  Perfectly fine. I love the idea of new blood and strong primary challenges so that incumbents are either (1) thrown out for a better option or (2) scared into believing that they're not invincible. 

HOWEVER.....

I would prefer that candidates be vetted.  Would it be so much to find candidates who don't think homosexuality is a social disease or identity disorder? Or someone who's had a job in the past 10 years that didn't revolve around suing people? I really don't think that makes me an establishment RINO, but if it does, I'll gladly be one.

Now this is the way to approach the issue.  In fact, if IVD had used this as his original post, I would have mostly agreed with him and the discussion could then have revolved around the best way to get candidates vetted in the current environment.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 09:59 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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This post at dpud, and some of the comments, really bother me.  Not because there is disagreement on the issue of whackjob Tea Party candidates, but because the 'establishment types' seem to think it's fine to mischaracterize (to the point of outright lying about) their opponents' positions.

Look, if I want to listen to a bunch of lies about my positions, I'll read the NYT or watch MSNBC.  I don't need that bullshit on an otherwise excellent blog.

The real issue:  The situation within the GOP is so chaotic that the Tea Party has gotten a few shady characters nominated.  There is a legitimate debate to be had on the vetting of candidates, and whether the 'throw the bums out' movement has gone too far.  I'm all for having this debate and would be willing to do so in a respectful fashion if only those on the other side of the issue would stop lying about my position.

Attempting to use Paladino's homophobic comments to tarnish  the Tea Party as anti-gay is incredibly dishonest.  Making an outright assertion that Chris Christie would never have gotten elected in this environment is a bald-faced lie.  Saying that (paraphrasing) 'if the GOP had vetted candidates better it would have been viewed as a power move'  is complete crap.

Those who believe in a more cohesive, top-down approach to GOP candidates need to start making their points honestly, or I (and many others like me) are going to lump them in with the MSM and tune them right the fuck out.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 08:32 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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You know you've become a pop culture icon when you get spoofed by Sesame Street.

(via TMZ, although it should be on every site in existence soon, I figure.)

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 04:28 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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I just finished rebuilding the side gate to our back yard.  Here are before and after photos:

Yeah, it's not perfectly square.  Considering the ground is uneven, the post sunk in the concrete (which I didn't try to replace, just stripped and waterproofed) is tilted, and I only used hand tools, it's a pretty good job.

I wish I had Steamboat McGoo's wood shop, but I don't have the space.  Not only would it be much easier to get stuff fitted perfectly, jobs would take about half the time.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 07:01 AM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
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I added a new blogroll category for 'fake internet friends'.  These are blogs of other folks who, like me, comment at doubleplusundead, but don't post there.  They also tend to focus on stuff other than the usual politics, as frankly, reading about the same old shit for the 100th time gets pretty damn boring.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 06:51 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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Obama has used a pocket veto on HR 3808.  For those not familiar with this issue, see this post at Denninger's place.  Read the comments too, as Denninger has one of the best forum communities going.

Given the huge pending problem with the way in which mortgage titles have been recorded, this veto was incredibly important.  Hell, even the statement at whitehouse.gov sounds Presidential:

Today, the White House announced that President Obama will not sign H.R. 3808, the Interstate Recognition of Notarizations Act of 2010, and will return the bill to the House of Representatives.  The Interstate Recognition of Notarizations Act of 2010 was designed to remove impediments to interstate commerce.  While we share this goal, we believe it is necessary to have further deliberations about the intended and unintended impact of this bill on consumer protections, including those for mortgages, before this bill can be finalized.

Notarizations are important for a large range of documents, including financial documents.  As the President has made clear, consumer financial protections are incredibly important, and he has made this one of his top priorities, including signing into law the strongest consumer protections in history in the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.  That is why we need to think through the intended and unintended consequences of this bill on consumer protections, especially in light of the recent developments with mortgage processors.

The authors of this bill no doubt had the best intentions in mind when trying to remove impediments to interstate commerce.  We will work with them and other leaders in Congress to explore the best ways to achieve this goal going forward.

I feel like I'm in Bizzaro-World, with a real President or something.  Knowing Obama, this will last all of about 15 minutes, but at least he got a very big one right.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 04:04 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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It is 'common knowledge' that the consumer is 70% of the U.S. economy -- it's a figure that's used all the time in economic reporting.  Too bad it's utter nonsense.  The consumer may be 70% of the way we measure certain aspects of the economy, but it's a statistic that is so misleading as to be harmful.

As usual, I like to get back to basics, in order to cut through the bullshit that passes for economic analysis these days.  So, let's consider things from simple principles (warning: there will be some basic math):

The first important concept is how 'the economy' is measured.  Should one measure production, consumption, or some combination of the two?  On a global basis (and ignoring for the moment reinvestment and a few other items) all production is eventually consumed in some fashion.  Thus, we could claim that the consumer is 100% of the global economy. It would make a lot more sense, however, to say that consumption is 100% of production.

Now, let's add a few other important items.  It is impossible to be perfectly efficient in production, so there will always be some waste (food spoilage for example).  Also, on the basis of a group that is smaller than the entire world, one can consume more than one produces by taking on external debt.  The main catch with debt is the interest expense.  So, we're now at:  Consumption = Production + External Debt - Interest - Waste.

Finally, the primary way to grow an economy (on a per-capita basis, which is what matters) is through reinvestment of production.  It's also a good idea to save some of our production for unforeseen events and retirement.  This gets us to an equation that covers all the most important items:  Consumption = Production + External Debt - Interest - Waste - Investment - Savings.

Now ask yourself, "What is the actual goal of an economy?  What are we trying to maximize?"  The answer, of course, is wealth.  From the standpoint of our equation, wealth is measured by savings and investment.  The more you are able to save and invest, the wealthier you will be.  Increased consumption is a byproduct of a wealthy society, but not the cause of one.  Let's rearrange the terms of our equation to reflect this:  Savings + Investment = Production + External Debt - Interest - Consumption - Waste.

Now we have a useful way of looking at things, and can see the reason for the title of this post.  To put it bluntly, consumption decreases wealth, so we wish to minimize our consumption to the extent which is reasonable.  Measuring our economic health through our consumption is completely idiotic.  Economic measurements should focus on the term in that equation which increases our wealth, namely production.

One final (and important) note is that our equation indicates that debt increases wealth (to the extent that it's greater than current interest).  This is an unfortunate artifact of a 'snapshot' measurement of the economy.  The truth, of course, is that we are losing wealth through interest, while the debt will eventually need to be paid back, subtracting this amount from our wealth in a future 'snapshot'.  The effect of debt over time is therefore negative  (a net zero on principal and a loss on interest).  A more rigorous (and needlessly complex for this post) approach would indicate this, along with a better breakdown of 'savings and investment' (assets such as houses, for example), as well as a few other time-series type items (such as depreciation and earned interest).

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 01:59 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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I just looked at the page views, and I've got way too many this month.  Which means that either some morons are reading this drivel (1% probability) or the spam-bots have found it (99% probability) and I'm about to get some great comments from Lace Wigs et. al.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 10:59 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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The goals of today's appearance by Stephen Colbert before Congress were transparantly obvious: Distract from the testimony of Christopher Coates to the Civil Rights Comission, and reengage the drooling morons who take people like Colbert seriously.  From what I can tell by perusing the non-conservative intertubes:  Mission accomplished.

From Crazy Days and Nights, a gossip site:

"At the beginning, one member of the committee asked Stephen to not speak and just to submit in writing what he wanted to say. Lucky for us, he got to speak. If more celebrities testified like this someone might actually watch CSPAN."

There you have it.  Fuck the basic math on the cost of illegal immigration, the fact that Mexico can't provide a stable society for their own population, or anything else sensible related to the issue.  Stephen Colbert made the funny in front of Congress, and that's what matters.

Sadly, this attitude is entirely too representative of a large portion of the American populace.  Meanwhile, A quick check of the mainstream (including Fox) MSM sites shows both the Colbert and Lohan (going back to jail) stories featured prominently, with almost no mention of the Coates testimony.  Yeah, I know it's the Obamedia, but that media does represent a significant portion of America, regardless of what any of us might wish for.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 03:37 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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It's National Punctuation Day.  So, make [sure] ... you; use lot's of? punctuation!

Of course, the best way to use punctuation (and other mostly useless symbols) is as a substitute for profanity, eg.:  Ben Bernanke can go $'("@...%;-?& himself!!!

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 03:19 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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Productivity gains are always touted as a good thing, and they are to the extent that they free up labor for other productive endeavors.  However, as productivity increases to the point where very little labor is required to produce vast amounts, we run into the problem of 'useless population'.  This, in my opinion, is one of the main reasons we find ourselves in our current economic situation.  This is also a situation for which libertarianism has no good solution, which, even as a libertarian, I'm willing to acknowledge.

Let's take an extreme example:  Consider a population with one need/want -- food.  If we maximize productivity, we have robotic farms which can feed millions with a handful of human workers.  This sounds wonderful, except that most of those millions have no way to earn a living, as their labor is completely redundant.  So one of three things must happen: (1) Those people farm for themselves so that they can survive, (2) We accept a socialistic society so that the productivity of the farms is distributed evenly, or (3) We borrow so that the 'useless population' can purchase food in the hope that they'll eventually become productive.

In situation (1) above, we devolve back to a much less productive society, which seems to be a very silly thing to do.  In situation (2), most people are getting a free ride on the back of those that actually produce, which hardly seems fair.  Finally, in situation (3), we start off with the equivalent of situation (2) and end up with unsustainable debt (which eventually causes either huge inflation or a crash) such that we're right back to situation (1).

I think it's easy to see how this simple example applies to the much more complex economy of the real world.  We're currently in a nightmare hash of situations (2) and (3), and rapidly headed for situation (1).  Many don't realize how prevalent situation (3) is at this point, but if one looks at the percentage of GDP that is subsidized through government debt, it's a rather astonishing 12%.  This is a topic Denninger (rightly) keeps harping on and the referenced post is just the latest of his many diatribes on the subject.

Given our complex economy, it can be difficult to discern just how few people are actually productive, but it's probably far fewer than most realize.  Take tax accountancy for example.  From the standpoint of actual wealth, this is a completely useless and unproductive profession -- the financial equivalent of filling in holes that have been dug by the government.  The profession neither creates nor preserves wealth, and is effectively part of a socialistic society -- just one in which make-work jobs replace completely free handouts.

At the moment, the governments of the world are trying to cover up the issue of 'useless population' by papering over the problem with a needless increase in economic complexity (health care legislation, etc.), borrowing, and outright printing of currency.  The former is obviously socialism, while the latter is unsustainable.  Either we're going to have to accept socialism, allow the expansion of debt/currency until we have hyperinflation or a crash, or we're going to have to find a better solution.

Clearly, I'm in the camp of find a better solution, but it's far from obvious what this solution should be.  For today, however, this post is long enough.  The reader (all zero of you) will hopefully think about the issue -- in the near future, I'll post about some of our options and the direction in which I think we should head.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 10:33 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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If politics sends your blood pressure through the roof and makes you want to go underground:

This song was featured in the thoroughly entertaining Wristcutters: A Love Story, one of the better movies made in the past few years.  Admittedly, that opinion might have something to do with Shannyn Sossamon playing the female lead:

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 05:01 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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Listening to a beltway insider on the merits of political reform is the same as listening to an assistant crack whore on the merits of rehab.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 10:29 AM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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1 Awesome

Posted by: LC Aggie Sith at September 22, 2010 03:58 AM (+bSoE)

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Congratulations to Vincenzo Nibali for his victory in the General Classification (best overall time) of the Vuelta a Espana.

After a grueling three weeks and over 2,000 miles, Nibali rode into Madrid today with a 41 second lead over runner-up Ezequiel Mosquera.  Nibali sealed the victory yesterday with an amazing chase of Mosquera up the final climb.

I'm obviously in a small minority in the US, but I just can't get enthused about American team sports anymore.  I started losing interest once sports news became more about contract negotiations and arrests than about games.  These days, I'll watch a bit of the World Series and some playoff football, but that's about it.

I now mostly watch racing (of all types, but especially NASCAR), and international competition (grand tour cycling, skiing world cup, etc.).  NBC Universal is a great sports station for following the international competitions.  It's probably the one good product NBC puts out.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 05:40 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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Enough with the political shit.  Hell, it's Just Another Day:

Oingo Boingo is in the top five live performances I've been fortunate enough to see (and I've seen over 100 name bands live, plus at least a couple hundred bar bands).  I saw them in Boston way way back in the day, when they were opening for Squeeze (and made Squeeze, a very talented band, look like punks).

Danny Elfman, the frontman for Boingo, has since gone on to write scores and theme songs for a hell of a lot of well-known movies and TV shows.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 11:51 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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Beautiful Atrocities appears to be coming back.  If you're not familiar with the blog from before, it's an eclectic mix of politics and pop culture, with an extremely high quirkiness factor.  Great stuff.

I hope the initial entry is a sign of regular posting and not just a teaser.  I figure the zero hits coming from my almost-nonexistant crapblog will really help move things along.

(BA post pointed out at Agent Bedhead).

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 10:51 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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I find it hard to believe that the hubbub over the DE primary is still going on, as to me the takeaway message is extremely simple:

People are so sick of business as usual in Government that they'd elect an old, smelly tennis shoe over a hack establishment politician.

That's it.  It really is that simple.  Whether or not O'Donnell is a somewhat-shady loon is completely beside the point.  Standard measures of 'electability' are meaningless, because playing the lesser-of-two-evils game has run this country into the toilet.

So the GOP doesn't get a Senate majority?  Considering what they've done with it in the past, who gives a shit? To the GOP establishment, every election has become 'the most important one evar!!!111!!one!' -- which is always bullshit, but rings especially hollow on a Senate race in fucking Delaware.

In case I'm not making my point, I'll be blunt:  the GOP leadership has absofuckinglutely zero credibility.  None.  Nada.  Zip.  Zilch.  Zero.  I'm not buying the "we're really going to vote like fiscal conservatives and not just play politics this time" line and, at this late date, almost nobody else is either.  If someone is pushing that crap, they're either hopelessly naive, or they have skin in the political game.

This isn't some dick measuring (bust-size measuring for females, I suppose) contest between the GOP establishment, RINOs, the Tea Party, neocons, paleocons, and/or any other conservative faction.  It's quite simply:  Throw the bums out.  That's it.

The most important part of this lesson, in my opinion, is not for this election cycle, but for 2012.  Assuming things go as expected and the GOP gains control of the House and captures about half the Senate, people are going to expect fiscal action.  So, jacking each other off and touting 'an enduring GOP majority', without making serious inroads into the current fiscal insanity, is going to lead to exactly one thing:  everything flipping back to the Dems in 2012 and even more GOP establishment bums thrown out.

For incumbents and the political establishment the old saying is now true:  The beatings will continue until morale improves.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at 10:34 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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